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DECEMBER 12,  2017

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET: 

ALABAMA – Democrat Doug Jones has won the Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions.  This should have been an easy Republican victory, but the GOP nominated a candidate, Roy Moore, with more baggage than American Airlines.  The defeat may be a blessing in disguise for the Republicans, although, paraphrasing Winston Churchill, the disguise is very thick indeed. 

The Republicans lose a seat in the Senate at a critical time.  The Senate will now stand at 51-49, with the tax reform bill coming up for a vote, assuming a version is agreed upon in the Senate/House committee that is now reconciling the differences between the House and Senate versions.  It is expected that retiring Senator Bob Corker of Tennessee will vote no on a final package, meaning that the maximum number of Republicans left to vote for the bill, assuming no losses, will be 50, with 50 voting against.  The vice president would break the tie in favor of the GOP.  That's assuming no further GOP defections, and assuming all Democrats vote no.  If there is a defection, there will be no tax reform. 

On the other hand, and this is the blessing, the Republicans will not be saddled with Roy Moore.  If Moore won, he would be seated, and would, through Democratic efforts joined by their allies in the press, become the walking symbol of the Republican Party. 

As usual, Doug Jones's victory will be oversimplified.  The"analysts" will analyze it to death.  It does not require analysis.  Jones didn't win.  Moore lost, and only by a hair.  It took Republicans years to regain control of the Senate during the Obama years because they put up bad, even ridiculous, candidates in critical states.  Once again the Republicans are plagued by mediocrity and sometimes craziness.

The media will also paint this as a defeat for President Trump.  Okay, it was.  He campaigned on behalf of Moore because he, understandably, didn't want to lose that Senate seat.  He will take some abuse, especially at CNN, which will see this as a chance to move further toward bringing Trump down.

But the impact of special elections tends to fade after a few weeks.  The main event, the midterms, are less than a year away.  Republicans must have some kind of legislative record to run on, and establishing that record is much more important than the loss in Alabama.

December 12, 2017       Permalink

WE HAVE BEEN WARNED – AT 2:50 P.M. ET:  North Korea is developing biological weapons to go with the rest of their WMD arsenal.  From the New York Post: 

North Korea plans to acquire machinery for a biological weapons program – including factories to produce deadly microbes and labs that specialize in genetic modification, according to a report.

The country also has sent scientists abroad to earn advanced degrees in microbiology, and is offering to sell biotechnology services to developing nations, US and Asian intelligence officials and weapons experts told The Washington Post.

Current and former US officials said they have not yet seen any hard evidence that North Korea has ordered the production of any weapons besides samples and prototypes, the paper reported.

“That the North Koreans have [biological] agents is known, by various means,” a senior US official familiar with military preparations for a biological attack told the paper on the condition of anonymity.

“The lingering question is, why have they acquired the materials and developed the science, but not yet produced weapons?”

The North’s push on the biological front has alarmed US analysts, who say Pyongyang — which is seeking to develop a nuclear warhead capable of reaching the US mainland — could quickly launch an industrial-scale production of deadly pathogens with which to threaten its neighbors or US troops.

US officials acknowledge that spy agencies may not be able to detect a change in North Korea’s program because the new technologies are ensconced in civilian factories that ostensibly produce agricultural and pharmaceutical products.

COMMENT:  Biological weapons kill people but leave buildings intact.  They are perfect weapons for the North Korean regime.

December 12, 2017       Permalink

WHAT IS GOING ON IN 'BAMA? – AT 10:46 A.M. ET:  Today Alabama elects a senator, after one of the most bitter, most publicized Senate campaigns in history.  The election will decide who replaces Jeff Sessions, who resigned from the Senate to become attorney general of the United States.

But wait a sec.  Have you seen the polls?  Man, they're all over the place.  Roy Moore in a landslide, says one.  Jones in a landslide says another.  You thought polls were scientific?  Well, sometimes.  Nate Silver has an excellent analysis of the kind of polling being done in Alabama, and this should clarify things quite a bit, although it won't predict the race.  From fivethirtyeight:   

Somebody’s going to be wrong in Alabama.

We’ve already urged caution when interpreting polls of Alabama’s special election to the U.S. Senate, which will be held on Tuesday. Some of that is because of the media’s usual tendency to demand certainty from the polls when the polls can’t provide it. And some of it is because of the circumstances of this particular race: a special election in mid-December in a state where Republicans almost never lose but where the Republican candidate, Roy Moore, has been accused of sexual misconduct toward multiple underaged women.

What we’re seeing in Alabama goes beyond the usual warnings about minding the margin of error, however. There’s a massive spread in results from poll to poll — with surveys on Monday morning showing everything from a 9-point lead for Moore to a 10-point advantage for Democrat Doug Jones — and they reflect two highly different approaches to polling.

Most polls of the state have been made using automated scripts (these are sometimes also called IVR or “robopolls”). These polls have generally shown Moore ahead and closing strongly toward the end of the campaign, such as the Emerson College poll on Monday that showed Moore leading by 9 points. Recent automated polls from Trafalgar Group, JMC Analytics and Polling, Gravis Marketing and Strategy Research have also shown Moore with the lead.

But when traditional, live-caller polls have weighed in — although these polls have been few and far between — they’ve shown a much different result.

COMMENT:  Please read the whole thing, and save the piece.  This is the best explanation of polling techniques that I've read recently. 

We don't know who will win.  Sadly, the Republicans probably won't win no matter what the outcome.  If they lose the race, they lose a critical vote in the Senate, in what should have been a cakewalk.  If they win with Roy Moore, they're saddled with a man with serious sexual-behavior charges against him, and a highly controversial and eccentric background.  Even the senior senator from Alabama, Republican Richard Shelby, refuses to support Moore.

I'd rather see the GOP keep the seat.  But the party needed a much better candidate.

December 12, 2017       Permalink

TERROR AFTERMATH – AT 8:38 A.M. ET:  We should never take a terror attack in stride.  We must learn all we can about each attacker.  From the New York Post: 

The alleged Port Authority bomber spent an hour spilling his guts to investigators at Bellevue Hospital on Monday — saying he picked the specific hallway because of Christmas posters and that he was avenging violence against Muslims around the world, law enforcement sources said.

Akayed Ullah mentioned President Trump and past administrations during the grilling, and said his anger was fueled by decades of anti-Muslim bloodshed in Gaza, Syria and Iraq.

Ullah, a Bangladeshi immigrant, said the attack was specifically inspired by ISIS — “not Al-Qaeda” — and also mentioned seeing Christmas posters before detonating the device in the underground tunnel between the bustling bus depot and the Times Square subway.

The seasonal imagery set him off — inspiring him to follow ISIS Christmas threats, NBC reports.

ISIS propaganda released just weeks ago features a picture of Santa Claus in Times Square next to explosives and the phrase “We meet at Christmas in New York . . . soon,” according to terror watchdog group Site Intel.

An Islamic State militant also drove a truck into a Berlin Christmas market last year, killing 12 and injuring 56.

“He acknowledges he purposely set it off then and there,” a senior law enforcement official said.

He says he acted alone, building his crudely constructed bomb from commercially available parts based on instructions he found online, sources said.

COMMENT:   No, he is not a "lone wolf."  He didn't "act alone."  He was radicalized, and he got his bomb instructions online.  No lone wolf he, and we should stop using that term.  We should also demand and insist that online services stop publishing bomb assembly instructions.  That is no part of First Amendment "free speech" protections.

December 12,  2017     Permalink

DECEMBER 11,  2017

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – at 11:53 P.M. ET:

THE DUMBEST SENATOR SPEAKS – FROM BREITBART:   On Monday, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour President Donald Trump should resign over the sexual misconduct allegations against him.  Gillibrand said, “President Trump should resign. These allegations are credible, they are numerous. I’ve heard these women’s testimony, and many of them are heartbreaking. And President Trump should resign his position.”  She's known in the Senate as a supreme opportunist.  She'd hitch a ride in a hearse just to get a picture with a grieving widow.

THIS GETTING RIDICULOUS – FROM FOX:   The New Yorker has severed ties with star reporter Ryan Lizza in response to behavior the magazine described as “improper sexual conduct.”  Lizza emerged as a household name last summer after he recorded a phone call with then-White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, who went off on a profanity-laced tirade. President Trump fired Scaramucci after less than two weeks.  “The New Yorker recently learned that Ryan Lizza engaged in what we believe was improper sexual conduct. We have reviewed the matter and, as a result, have severed ties with Lizza. Due to a request for privacy, we are not commenting further,” the magazine said in a statement.  Lizza is also a contributor to CNN and the network put out its own statement shortly after the news broke.  “We have just learned of the New Yorker's decision. Ryan Lizza will not appear on CNN while we look into this matter,” a CNN spokesperson said.  This is taking on the characteristics of a witch hunt.  I don't like it.  Men are having their lives destroyed without any chance to defend themselves.  Larry King was also charged today with groping.  Who will be destroyed tomorrow?

MY HEART BREAKS – FROM THE NEW YORK POST:  The family of the alleged ISIS-inspired Port Authority bomber said they were “heartbroken” by the attack on Monday and blasted law enforcement agencies for what they claimed were heavy-handed tactics by investigators.  “We are heartbroken by the violence that was targeted at our city today and by the allegations being made against a member of our family,” said the statement read by Albert Fox Cahn, the Legal Director for the NY Chapter Council for Islamic Relations.  “But we’re also outraged by the behavior of the law enforcement officials who held children as small as 4 years old out in the cold and who pulled a teenager out of high school classes to interrogate him without lawyer, without his parents.”  It was not immediately clear if the 4-year-old or the teenager were were related to the suspect.  Wait.  Someone will try to blame Trump, or Bush, or Cheney.

December 11, 2017       Permalink

TERRIFIC YOUNG WOMAN – AT 11:18 A.M. ET:  And yes, you even find them in the Ivy League.  This Harvard student is taking on the casual pro-Communism of other Harvard gems.  From Campus Reform: 

A Harvard University student whose father escaped Romanian Communism recently called out her liberal classmates for casually endorsing the murderous ideology.

In an essay for The Harvard Crimson, sophomore Laura Nicolae warns that widespread student sentiment on campus paints communism as an “idealistic or revolutionary” ideology, glossing over the fact that millions of people have died as a result of it.

"Roughly 100 million people died at the hands of the ideology my parents escaped...We owe it to them to recognize that this ideology is not a fad, and their deaths are not a joke."   

“They cannot tell their story. We owe it to them to recognize that this ideology is not a fad, and their deaths are not a joke.”

Nicolae argues that for many students, “casually endorsing communism is a cool, edgy way to gripe about the world,” citing the rise of students wearing Ché Guevara shirts, the formation of student clubs dedicated to Marxism, and noting that her campus is “saturated with Marxist memes and jokes about communist revolutions.”

In an interview with Campus Reform, Nicolae explained that she was inspired to write the piece because she hopes to “remind people of the historical truth that every time communism has been tried, it has resulted in misery, starvation, and violence.”

Students don’t learn this in school, she explained, adding that “communist theory and rhetoric have been separated from communism’s historical consequences.”

“College culture generally looks favorably upon the idea that we should be mindful of the historical context and consequences of our political speech,” she said. “It’s a mystery to me why political speech about communism doesn’t get that same treatment. That’s a double standard.”

COMMENT:  She's terrific.  There are many reasons why Communism has not been held in the same contempt as Nazism.  First, and most important, we fought a world war against Nazism, with hundreds of thousands of American casualties.  The Communist Russians were, during that war, on our side, at least on the surface.

Second, Communism appealed to many simplistic intellectuals in the press and the universities, and they filtered the news about what real Communists actually did.

Third, the excesses of Senator Joseph McCarthy and his allies turned many people away from anti Communism, making it more difficult to expose the truth about the reds.  It was said in the early 1950s that Joe McCarthy was the best friend Joe Stalin ever had.

I hope we'll see a backlash on college campuses against the reds.  Young women like Laura can make it happen.

December 11, 2017        Permalink

ALABAMA SENATE ELECTION TOMORROW – AT 10:21 A.M. ET:   And it really does look too close to call.  From NBC News: 

WASHINGTON — The entire political world is watching Alabama's Senate race, but what happens Tuesday is anybody's guess.

The highly unusual nature of the election, along with the difficulty faced by pollsters, has made the race murkier than a cypress swamp.

Recent polls show Republican Roy Moore leading Democrat Doug Jones by single digits, and most experts would bet on the Republican to prevail in the heavily red state — but they probably wouldn't wager much on it.

"There is no like election like this one," said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster based in Montgomery, whose firm, Anzalone Liszt Grove Research, has been involved in some of this year's biggest races.

Turnout is always tough to predict in a special election, especially one two weeks before Christmas. Even establishing a baseline of expectations for the race is slippery, since few have bothered polling a state where elections are generally predetermined for candidates with an "R" next to their name on the ballot.

The allegations of sexual impropriety against Moore may keep some Republicans home and could lead others to cast write-in votes, following the example of Sen. Richard Shelby, who said Sunday on CNN, "I couldn’t vote for Roy Moore." But the extent of those GOP defections is impossible to gauge.

COMMENT:  It really is a sickening election.  The Democrat is a liberal trying to hide it, and getting help from George Soros's nightmare network.  Roy Moore, the Republican, is an awful candidate with credible sex abuse charges against him, and a record of being an erratic, law-defying judge.  And he will be an embarrassment to the party if he goes to the Senate.  He almost certainly will have to undergo an Ethics Committee investigation based on the allegations of some women that he abused them when they were teenagers.

Nothing like good government.  The GOP loses whether Moore is victorious or not.  Trump wants him because he will vote properly on administration proposals.  But the other senator from Alabama, Republican Richard Shelby, announced over the weekend that he couldn't vote for Moore.

Republicans could have come up with a decent candidate.

December 11, 2017       Permalink

TERROR IN NEW YORK – AT 9:56 A.M. ET:  There was an attempted terrorist attack in Manhattan this morning.  A single bomber carried an explosive device through a subway station.  The device went off, possibly prematurely.  The bomber was injured, and there are reports that several others were injured as well.  From the New York Post: 

An ISIS-inspired would-be suicide bomber set off a homemade explosive device at the Port Authority Bus Terminal subway station Monday morning, seriously wounding himself and injuring three others, law enforcement sources said.

The man — a 27-year-old Brooklyn man identified by high ranking police sources as Akayed Ullah — had wires attached to him and a 5-inch metal pipe bomb and battery pack strapped to his midsection as he walked through the Manhattan transit hub.

The man partially detonated the device, which he was carrying under the right side of his jacket, prematurely inside the passageway to the A, C and E trains at Eighth Avenue and West 42nd Street around 7:40 a.m., sources said.

Police quickly took the man into custody.

Former NYPD Commissioner Bill Bratton told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that the man was inspired by ISIS and possibly born in Bangladesh.

Bratton, who said the man had been living in the US for seven years, “was supposedly setting the device off in the name of ISIS.”

COMMENT:  The fact that he is from Bangladesh has now been confirmed.  He is still alive, which means he can probably be questioned.

Police have cut off a number of routes into Manhattan, but have not explained why.

You may recall that ISIS put out several videos weeks ago, warning of holiday-time attacks in New York.  We don't know if this morning's attacker had specific instructions or acted alone after being inspired by ISIS.

December 11,  2017     Permalink